The most recent polls indicate Mitt Romney has a strong chance to wrest the
White House from President Barack Obama, says ace Republican strategist Karl
The opening statements of the first presidential debate and the
closing statements of the final debate are what put Romney in this position, he
writes in The Wall Street Journal.
The average of the last 10
major polls compiled by Real Clear Politics shows Romney leading 47.7 percent to
47.1 percent. Just before the first debate, Obama led 49.1 to 46
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More importantly, in the past
week’s 40 national surveys, Romney’s support registered at or above 50 percent
in 11 polls, while Obama scored that high in only one, Rove says.
especially good news for Romney because “an incumbent president’s final number
in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote, and undecided
voters generally swing the challenger’s way,” Rove writes.
The race will
likely be decided by a few states — Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New
Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and most
important, Ohio, Rove says.
“So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50
percent in these states — as he now is in almost every one — he is likely to
lose them and his chance at a second term.”