As the debate in Iowa begins, and Ron Paul is surging in the polls in Iowa, could he possibly take the GOP nomination in Tampa next year?:

Ron Paul has a 7.5 percent likelihood of winning the Republican nomination, based on data from prediction markets. That puts him in 3rd place, behind Mitt Romney at 47.7 percent and Newt Gingrich at 33.7 percent, but ahead  of Jon Huntsman at 5.4 percent.

Real Clear Politics has Paul at 9.3 percentage points in its latest aggregated poll trend for the Republican primary. Among active candidates, that puts him 3rd behind Gingrich at 33.3 percentage points and Romney at 22.0 percentage points. The prediction markets and polls paint a picture of the race for the Republican nomination that contrasts with many indicators talked about on the internet.